1. CPI rose 6.5% in China from rising food prices. Consumer inflation is highest in 11 years.
2. Ukraine to launch a money market index.
3. Slovakia was fastest growing economy in the EU for the third quarter.
4. The Ivory Coast will cut electricity exports to neighboring counties. Rise of demand at home.
5. Looks like the EU’s highest benchmark interest rate country will keep its title.
Tuesday, November 13, 2007
Monday, November 12, 2007
Breakfast Links
1. Sinotruk, China’s largest heavy truck company, is going to raise 1.3bn in IPO.
2. Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is the first private buyer of an A380 superjumbo, the world's largest passenger airliner.
3. Vedanta Resources to spin off Indian energy unit in a $2bn IPO.
4. Goldman Sachs is still bullish on emerging markets but is cutting back its exposure due to continual turmoil in global credit.
5. Chinese stocks take a hit after regulators announced on the 9th increase in bank reserve requirement so far this year to 13.5%.
2. Prince Alwaleed bin Talal is the first private buyer of an A380 superjumbo, the world's largest passenger airliner.
3. Vedanta Resources to spin off Indian energy unit in a $2bn IPO.
4. Goldman Sachs is still bullish on emerging markets but is cutting back its exposure due to continual turmoil in global credit.
5. Chinese stocks take a hit after regulators announced on the 9th increase in bank reserve requirement so far this year to 13.5%.
Friday, November 9, 2007
Breakfast Links
1. China's monthly trade surplus probably topped $30 billion for the first time.
2. Petrobras finds an estimated 8bn bbl reserve.
3. The World Bank will commit $2bn to develop broadband access in Africa.
4. ArcelorMittal and Toyota sign a joint venture to process steel in S. Africa.
5. While Citi, Merril and everyone else is getting spanked, a Polish Bank shines.
2. Petrobras finds an estimated 8bn bbl reserve.
3. The World Bank will commit $2bn to develop broadband access in Africa.
4. ArcelorMittal and Toyota sign a joint venture to process steel in S. Africa.
5. While Citi, Merril and everyone else is getting spanked, a Polish Bank shines.
Thursday, November 8, 2007
Lynching and inching towards something good
Over a week after firing E. Stan and writing down ridiculous amounts, looks like they'd like to be a trusted source for aEmerging Market currency index
I guess it couldn't hurt. A little Emerging Markets exposure never hurt anyone (not yet anyway)
US subprime is the devil
I guess it couldn't hurt. A little Emerging Markets exposure never hurt anyone (not yet anyway)
US subprime is the devil
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
Breakfast Links
1. S. Africa's foreign reserves are up on dollar's weakness.
2. Mozambique opens first reinsurance firm.
3. High oil profits covers a multitude of presidential incompetence.
4. Eco-friendly chopstick bra.
5. Despite oil prices hitting $100/bbl in the next few days, the IMF does not believe that it will have a dent in global growth.
2. Mozambique opens first reinsurance firm.
3. High oil profits covers a multitude of presidential incompetence.
4. Eco-friendly chopstick bra.
5. Despite oil prices hitting $100/bbl in the next few days, the IMF does not believe that it will have a dent in global growth.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
Pakistan
Pakistan has been taking a beating by Moody’s and S&P since emergency rule has been established. Bond holders tend not to like when single military ruler decides he needs to fight the “terrorists” and suspends democratic elections when things don’t go his way. The major issue in this case isn’t even a question of whether or not he government will renegade on it’s bonds, it’s unlikely since they will need to borrow money again sooner or later, but whether or not the economy will be sustainable. Equity investors are not pouring money into projects in the country reducing taxes to the State.
Here is where the debt investors can get play for their dollars. Pakistan, while unstable, is a partner to the United States in their war on terror. The US might not like the current powers that be, but they have to work with him. Being that the country possesses nuclear power, it is hard to imagine the US not intervening before the case gets out of hand.
Pakistan sovereigns might be worth a look right now. Why there is clearly a high political risk embedded in them now, it seems that they are largely oversold. As Bloomberg notes the yields on June 2017 have risen over 250 bps. There is no clear indication that this is indeed the bottom but it seems unlikely that the current government would allow for continual decline in social unrest. General social unrest provides difficulty for the country since they are multi-faceted entities whereas the risk being undertaken by a singular government gone rogue is quantifiable and more easily fixed.
Here is where the debt investors can get play for their dollars. Pakistan, while unstable, is a partner to the United States in their war on terror. The US might not like the current powers that be, but they have to work with him. Being that the country possesses nuclear power, it is hard to imagine the US not intervening before the case gets out of hand.
Pakistan sovereigns might be worth a look right now. Why there is clearly a high political risk embedded in them now, it seems that they are largely oversold. As Bloomberg notes the yields on June 2017 have risen over 250 bps. There is no clear indication that this is indeed the bottom but it seems unlikely that the current government would allow for continual decline in social unrest. General social unrest provides difficulty for the country since they are multi-faceted entities whereas the risk being undertaken by a singular government gone rogue is quantifiable and more easily fixed.
Breakfast Links
1. See didn’t we tell you to get on the magic carpet? Alibaba’s up 193% on first day’s trading.
2. Obviously Pakistan has now gone to shit. Buying opportunity?
3. S. Africa’s growing and growing fast but someone forgot to include the need for more electricity?
4. Angola’s has a cement shortage. Opportunity?
5. At this is was one division Chuck Prince couldn’t muck up – Citi’s Poland division actually made money!
2. Obviously Pakistan has now gone to shit. Buying opportunity?
3. S. Africa’s growing and growing fast but someone forgot to include the need for more electricity?
4. Angola’s has a cement shortage. Opportunity?
5. At this is was one division Chuck Prince couldn’t muck up – Citi’s Poland division actually made money!
Monday, November 5, 2007
more Breakfast Links (eat up, no dieting here)
6. More comments on the BRIC bubble in Bloomberg.
7. Portfolio Managers discuss to how to manage risk globally and what specific funds they are currently using.
8. Kirby Daley says go into Asian stocks.
7. Portfolio Managers discuss to how to manage risk globally and what specific funds they are currently using.
8. Kirby Daley says go into Asian stocks.
Breakfast Links
1. Are you kidding me??!! PetroChina is now worth over one TRILLION dollars!!!
2. Sinotrans Shipping Ltd may raise up to $1.5bn in its IPO.
3. China to prevent its citizens from buying Hong Kong stocks. WTF????
4. Beijing to build the world’s largest Ferris Wheel.
5. US credit issues continue to take a toil on Asia.
2. Sinotrans Shipping Ltd may raise up to $1.5bn in its IPO.
3. China to prevent its citizens from buying Hong Kong stocks. WTF????
4. Beijing to build the world’s largest Ferris Wheel.
5. US credit issues continue to take a toil on Asia.
Friday, November 2, 2007
Breakfast Links
1. Indonesia to offer $2bn Bond.
2. Leading banks in Kazakhstan downgraded.
3. At least seven Chinese shipbuilders are planning IPOs.
4. Russian Soccer team had to train in their socks because the Romanians stole their boots.
5. The IDB releases its 2008 report.
2. Leading banks in Kazakhstan downgraded.
3. At least seven Chinese shipbuilders are planning IPOs.
4. Russian Soccer team had to train in their socks because the Romanians stole their boots.
5. The IDB releases its 2008 report.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Ranting on Bubbles
There a huge line between being a bear and being Chicken Little. Chicken Little, as the story goes, is constantly crying out that the sky is falling. A bear is one who believes the market is going to crash and is waiting patiently to start feasting on cadavers.
Over the last few weeks we have been bombarded with alerts that there is a bubble going on in China. No shit Sherlock. I mean, is there some idiot out there buying in that believes we're only at the beginning of the market cycle? A quick search on Google for 'China + bubble' gave us 7 million hits!
Rather than constant writing about the obvious these people get need to get involved. Just think about the recent credit crunch, people have been "predicting" a housing crash for the past 4 years. Would you have shorted the ABX 2 years ago? Your portfolio would look like bloody Iraq right now.
The point is that we are always in one bubble or another, that's just the nature of business or credit cycles. But say you do have a timeframe for the eventual Chinese meltdown. You know that Shanghai is going to have its ass kung pao-ed. As this Forbes article believes it will after the 2008. Don't write articles about it, put your money where your mouth is.
Do you really have what it takes to be a bear on this market? Are you willing to buy puts or short the index? With Ipos coming out that rise 50-60% on the first day you are either loony or brilliant. To tackle this bull you have to ask yourself, do you have the moral fortitude and the balls the size of mangos to put on a short position in front of the charging train?
You're a brave one Chicken Little. We who are about to die, salute you.
Over the last few weeks we have been bombarded with alerts that there is a bubble going on in China. No shit Sherlock. I mean, is there some idiot out there buying in that believes we're only at the beginning of the market cycle? A quick search on Google for 'China + bubble' gave us 7 million hits!
Rather than constant writing about the obvious these people get need to get involved. Just think about the recent credit crunch, people have been "predicting" a housing crash for the past 4 years. Would you have shorted the ABX 2 years ago? Your portfolio would look like bloody Iraq right now.
The point is that we are always in one bubble or another, that's just the nature of business or credit cycles. But say you do have a timeframe for the eventual Chinese meltdown. You know that Shanghai is going to have its ass kung pao-ed. As this Forbes article believes it will after the 2008. Don't write articles about it, put your money where your mouth is.
Do you really have what it takes to be a bear on this market? Are you willing to buy puts or short the index? With Ipos coming out that rise 50-60% on the first day you are either loony or brilliant. To tackle this bull you have to ask yourself, do you have the moral fortitude and the balls the size of mangos to put on a short position in front of the charging train?
You're a brave one Chicken Little. We who are about to die, salute you.
Breakfast Links
1. China to soon offer futures contracts on their stock index.
2. Hyundai’s bottom line is hurt because of rising Korean currency.
3. China not only has to fight against fake drug makers but fake drug watchdog website!
4. As we mentioned before, China’s price caps are hurting it’s oil companies so their raising fuel prices 6%. Thanks guys!
5. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., the world's third-largest gold producer posts $310m loss for third quarter.
2. Hyundai’s bottom line is hurt because of rising Korean currency.
3. China not only has to fight against fake drug makers but fake drug watchdog website!
4. As we mentioned before, China’s price caps are hurting it’s oil companies so their raising fuel prices 6%. Thanks guys!
5. AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., the world's third-largest gold producer posts $310m loss for third quarter.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
evening commute links
figured with the breakfast links, we needed some just before dinner right after we begin our descent. homeward bound we are.
1. Market Strategists see not only domestic threats being a problem to US economic growth, but also those from EM.
2. Quiet honestly, if you're going to read an article on EM, this is the one for you to READ!
3. I'm tired of beating you guys over the head over Chinese IPOs! Giant Interactive Unit! It should price at around 16-17 (above it's range) and open somewhere north of $25. Demand on these things are like crack!
4. Your dentist was right about brushing at least twice a day. Seems like folks throughout the Emerging Markets might be brushing about three times a day.
1. Market Strategists see not only domestic threats being a problem to US economic growth, but also those from EM.
2. Quiet honestly, if you're going to read an article on EM, this is the one for you to READ!
3. I'm tired of beating you guys over the head over Chinese IPOs! Giant Interactive Unit! It should price at around 16-17 (above it's range) and open somewhere north of $25. Demand on these things are like crack!
4. Your dentist was right about brushing at least twice a day. Seems like folks throughout the Emerging Markets might be brushing about three times a day.
Are Western Islamic Bonds even necessary?
As I understand it, the selling point of the sukuk or Islamic bond is that investors who wish adhere to Shariah principles can invest in them. Sound good right? Well as posted in our breakfast links, the yields on the ones issued from the West will not be attracting any Middle Eastern tycoons anytime soon.
As expected, when it comes to choosing between God or money, most of us spend more time at the office. The yields on these things are sad especially if you compare the Islamic bonds being issued out of Malaysia or Saudi Arabia. What is even more tragic is that they seem fairly redundant. The major parameter is that they are not allowed to charge or pay interest. The other parameters would include that the income be generated from a hard asset and not cash. This of course excludes lots of the movements in face values thereby excluding repos, strips, or trade receivables (I’m still confused on the last one).
The whole concept is to shoehorn a market into a system of rents. This should increase demand for lease backed notes. If nothing else, bankers should focus less on creating Western Islamic bonds and putting more effort into increasing offers for equipment lease certificates. I’m assuming that they are using capital lease backed structures to bypass the question of buying on credit. Such a huge demand would help lower the cost of leasing for many corporations which can then become valuable investments for the population.
The West has very little to offer Muslim investors in terms of Islamic bonds, the focus should be on marketing Western securities that will fit into the Shariah parameters. The majority of corporate issues seem to be coming from Malaysia.
Western investors should take a closer look at Islamic bonds some which are offering fairly attractive yields. The market is beginning to slowly become more cohesive as HSBC begins its Index into the market. High quality corporates are very attractive. Some of the offerings for 2007 include:
GFH Sukuk Ltd (Bahrain) 3m Euribor + 125bps
National Industries Group SAK (Kuwait) 3m Libor + 105bps
Dar Al-Arkan International Sukuk Co (Saudi Arabia) 3m Libor + 225bps
Jimah Energy Ventures Sdn Bhd (Malaysia) Expected yield 9.3%
The issuance of the bonds are slowing down worldwide as the American liquidity issue has made investors par back their holdings of exotics. This might represent the time to look seriously at Islamic bonds as a means of adding a non-correlated fixed income item into your pool. It is certainly beating out US receivables bonds but then again your repo options might be higher with the more familiar US issue.
As expected, when it comes to choosing between God or money, most of us spend more time at the office. The yields on these things are sad especially if you compare the Islamic bonds being issued out of Malaysia or Saudi Arabia. What is even more tragic is that they seem fairly redundant. The major parameter is that they are not allowed to charge or pay interest. The other parameters would include that the income be generated from a hard asset and not cash. This of course excludes lots of the movements in face values thereby excluding repos, strips, or trade receivables (I’m still confused on the last one).
The whole concept is to shoehorn a market into a system of rents. This should increase demand for lease backed notes. If nothing else, bankers should focus less on creating Western Islamic bonds and putting more effort into increasing offers for equipment lease certificates. I’m assuming that they are using capital lease backed structures to bypass the question of buying on credit. Such a huge demand would help lower the cost of leasing for many corporations which can then become valuable investments for the population.
The West has very little to offer Muslim investors in terms of Islamic bonds, the focus should be on marketing Western securities that will fit into the Shariah parameters. The majority of corporate issues seem to be coming from Malaysia.
Western investors should take a closer look at Islamic bonds some which are offering fairly attractive yields. The market is beginning to slowly become more cohesive as HSBC begins its Index into the market. High quality corporates are very attractive. Some of the offerings for 2007 include:
GFH Sukuk Ltd (Bahrain) 3m Euribor + 125bps
National Industries Group SAK (Kuwait) 3m Libor + 105bps
Dar Al-Arkan International Sukuk Co (Saudi Arabia) 3m Libor + 225bps
Jimah Energy Ventures Sdn Bhd (Malaysia) Expected yield 9.3%
The issuance of the bonds are slowing down worldwide as the American liquidity issue has made investors par back their holdings of exotics. This might represent the time to look seriously at Islamic bonds as a means of adding a non-correlated fixed income item into your pool. It is certainly beating out US receivables bonds but then again your repo options might be higher with the more familiar US issue.
Breakfast Links
1. S. African coal prices rise as demand from India increases.
2. Islamic bond offer might be delayed because no Islamic investor wants to buy a non-coupon, low coupon denying ambiguous coupon bond. What? Just click the link...
3. China’s CPI is expected to grow by more than 3% for 2007.
4. China & India to may get spanked if our spineless Fed chief continues to cut rates.
5. Going long on Australian real estate – Former Auzzie convict loved his cell so much he bought it.
2. Islamic bond offer might be delayed because no Islamic investor wants to buy a non-coupon, low coupon denying ambiguous coupon bond. What? Just click the link...
3. China’s CPI is expected to grow by more than 3% for 2007.
4. China & India to may get spanked if our spineless Fed chief continues to cut rates.
5. Going long on Australian real estate – Former Auzzie convict loved his cell so much he bought it.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
some dinner time links
1. The revolution will not be televised. It'll be sent to you via text message on your mobile phone instead. It's thought that of the next 1bn mobile users globally, most will come from IC (India and China, not IC as in the short hand text messaging for "I see")
2. "It's gone daft" so says John Bennett who says emerging markets have been overheating too rapidly. With 6.8% returns YTD, I'd say things aren't nearly warm enough.
3. Funny to see how far removed money managers really think of themselves in Africa, from us folks in the good ol US
2. "It's gone daft" so says John Bennett who says emerging markets have been overheating too rapidly. With 6.8% returns YTD, I'd say things aren't nearly warm enough.
3. Funny to see how far removed money managers really think of themselves in Africa, from us folks in the good ol US
The Devil Wears Ghana
In what seemingly used to be reserved for western culture, international cosmetics companies are starting to realize there may be huge potential for women who don't feel pretty enough.
We hit them over the head with our hollywood stars, our commercials, and voila! you have the makings of a young, but growing society of women who no longer feel good about themselves physically. This trend seems to be growing and companies like Unilever are ready to step in and fill that void.
In all fairness, plastic surgery has been fairly common in areas like LatAm for those who could afford it for years. Now it seems like going au natural is no longer beautiful in the BRIC countries.
Well isn't that just fantastic?
Or should I say Marvelous? Marvelous Dahling, Marvelous!
We hit them over the head with our hollywood stars, our commercials, and voila! you have the makings of a young, but growing society of women who no longer feel good about themselves physically. This trend seems to be growing and companies like Unilever are ready to step in and fill that void.
In all fairness, plastic surgery has been fairly common in areas like LatAm for those who could afford it for years. Now it seems like going au natural is no longer beautiful in the BRIC countries.
Well isn't that just fantastic?
Or should I say Marvelous? Marvelous Dahling, Marvelous!
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