Wednesday, October 31, 2007

evening commute links

figured with the breakfast links, we needed some just before dinner right after we begin our descent. homeward bound we are.

1. Market Strategists see not only domestic threats being a problem to US economic growth, but also those from EM.

2. Quiet honestly, if you're going to read an article on EM, this is the one for you to READ!

3. I'm tired of beating you guys over the head over Chinese IPOs! Giant Interactive Unit! It should price at around 16-17 (above it's range) and open somewhere north of $25. Demand on these things are like crack!

4. Your dentist was right about brushing at least twice a day. Seems like folks throughout the Emerging Markets might be brushing about three times a day.

Are Western Islamic Bonds even necessary?

As I understand it, the selling point of the sukuk or Islamic bond is that investors who wish adhere to Shariah principles can invest in them. Sound good right? Well as posted in our breakfast links, the yields on the ones issued from the West will not be attracting any Middle Eastern tycoons anytime soon.

As expected, when it comes to choosing between God or money, most of us spend more time at the office. The yields on these things are sad especially if you compare the Islamic bonds being issued out of Malaysia or Saudi Arabia. What is even more tragic is that they seem fairly redundant. The major parameter is that they are not allowed to charge or pay interest. The other parameters would include that the income be generated from a hard asset and not cash. This of course excludes lots of the movements in face values thereby excluding repos, strips, or trade receivables (I’m still confused on the last one).

The whole concept is to shoehorn a market into a system of rents. This should increase demand for lease backed notes. If nothing else, bankers should focus less on creating Western Islamic bonds and putting more effort into increasing offers for equipment lease certificates. I’m assuming that they are using capital lease backed structures to bypass the question of buying on credit. Such a huge demand would help lower the cost of leasing for many corporations which can then become valuable investments for the population.

The West has very little to offer Muslim investors in terms of Islamic bonds, the focus should be on marketing Western securities that will fit into the Shariah parameters. The majority of corporate issues seem to be coming from Malaysia.

Western investors should take a closer look at Islamic bonds some which are offering fairly attractive yields. The market is beginning to slowly become more cohesive as HSBC begins its Index into the market. High quality corporates are very attractive. Some of the offerings for 2007 include:

GFH Sukuk Ltd (Bahrain) 3m Euribor + 125bps
National Industries Group SAK (Kuwait) 3m Libor + 105bps
Dar Al-Arkan International Sukuk Co (Saudi Arabia) 3m Libor + 225bps
Jimah Energy Ventures Sdn Bhd (Malaysia) Expected yield 9.3%

The issuance of the bonds are slowing down worldwide as the American liquidity issue has made investors par back their holdings of exotics. This might represent the time to look seriously at Islamic bonds as a means of adding a non-correlated fixed income item into your pool. It is certainly beating out US receivables bonds but then again your repo options might be higher with the more familiar US issue.

Breakfast Links

1. S. African coal prices rise as demand from India increases.

2. Islamic bond offer might be delayed because no Islamic investor wants to buy a non-coupon, low coupon denying ambiguous coupon bond. What? Just click the link...

3. China’s CPI is expected to grow by more than 3% for 2007.

4. China & India to may get spanked if our spineless Fed chief continues to cut rates.

5. Going long on Australian real estate – Former Auzzie convict loved his cell so much he bought it.

Tuesday, October 30, 2007

some dinner time links

1. The revolution will not be televised. It'll be sent to you via text message on your mobile phone instead. It's thought that of the next 1bn mobile users globally, most will come from IC (India and China, not IC as in the short hand text messaging for "I see")

2. "It's gone daft" so says John Bennett who says emerging markets have been overheating too rapidly. With 6.8% returns YTD, I'd say things aren't nearly warm enough.

3. Funny to see how far removed money managers really think of themselves in Africa, from us folks in the good ol US

The Devil Wears Ghana

In what seemingly used to be reserved for western culture, international cosmetics companies are starting to realize there may be huge potential for women who don't feel pretty enough.
We hit them over the head with our hollywood stars, our commercials, and voila! you have the makings of a young, but growing society of women who no longer feel good about themselves physically. This trend seems to be growing and companies like Unilever are ready to step in and fill that void.
In all fairness, plastic surgery has been fairly common in areas like LatAm for those who could afford it for years. Now it seems like going au natural is no longer beautiful in the BRIC countries.
Well isn't that just fantastic?
Or should I say Marvelous? Marvelous Dahling, Marvelous!

Shorting Emerging Markets?

Blasphemy!
Check out these new ETF's for you EM bears out there.

Panamania!

Ok the title's lame but you try finding something funny to work Panama into.

An interesting paper on public debt markets in Central America, prepared for the IMF by authors Hemant Shah, Andreas Jobst, Laura Valderrama-Ferrando, and Ivan Guerra, gives us a closer look at Panama.

This morning I had a sudden interest in Panama, why? No idea, my fellow snarky economists here asked me the same thing, but now I am a firm believer in looking deeper into this quiet country. It is worth our while to start looking past Brazil, Mexico and Columbia into other areas that while not exhibiting growth certainly is increasing stability.

Reasons to look more closely at Panama

1. Panama continues to have sustained and strong economic growth - 7.6% Real GDP in 2004, 6.4% in 2005 with low inflation (2.9%)

2. Panama has a well developed and liquid banking center - it's always a plus to have a liquid domestic credit market

3. There is plenty of room for growth in the nonbank financial sector e.g. insurance, investment management, etc. And there seems to be good insulation from financial crisises in neighbouring countries.

4. There isn't an enormous amount of secondary trading in the Bolsa de Valores de Panama SA but if the Bovespa IPO is any indication, there is a continued "flight to quality" in Latin America where companies continue to seek stable financial centers to list their companies and are not shy about crossing borders.

5. Taxes are attractive - I wouldn't buy any munis but that's another issue. Our authors note "Domestic income is only lightly taxed and foreignsourced
earnings as well as dividends and capital gains from exchange-listed companies are tax-exempt. Interest income from nonlisted securities is subject to a flat tax rate of 5 percent."

6. Sovereign credit quality has continued to improve. The country has gone from borrowing a 10 year tenor @ 10.75% in July 2000 to it's more recent March 07 30 year offering @ 6.7%. Current 5 year CDS spreads place it higher than it's neighbors (Brazil, Venezuela, Mexico, and Colombia) Though I would argue that Venezuela poses far greater political risks.

Current attractive corporate offerings include

Panama Canal Railway Co - 20years @ 7%
Banco de Credito del Peru (Panama) - 15years @ 7.17%
AES Panama SA - 10years @ 6.35%

Breakfast Links

1. Chinese oil giant Sinopec loses money in oil as oil prices go up. Huh? Ohhhh. That’s why Communism blows.

2. China bans the use of "seductive" words like "foxy lady", "handsome guy" and "moneybags" in personal ads. I’m guess they prefer ones like “Single, parent honoring, female available - will produce many sons…”

3. Bank of China posts 40% rise in its nine month profit. Would have done better but took a hit in US subprime.

4. Petrobras’ finance arm prices $1 billion bond. 2018 @ 98.612 with 5.75% cpn to yield 1.67% over Treasuries.

5. JP Morgan to $2 billion to invest in Indian Infrastructure.

Monday, October 29, 2007

Making music in Indonesia

So President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono of Indonesia on the campaign trails does not mention anything about the problems of trade stangnation, diminished trade relations with the rest of Asia, the fact that their natural gas resource which has been holding the GDP up, is depleting, what does he talk about? His new album!

Apparently he’s hoping that his collection of love ballads will beat out the love ballads of his rival, Army Chief Wiranto.

Indonesia has several investment grade whole loans that came out this year. Companies to look at include

Indorama international (Textile)
PT Ultrajaya Milk Industry and Trading Co (Food & Beverage)
PT Austindo Nusantara (Mining)

I am interested in how PT Bakrie Telecom will fare in the future. They took out a fairly high leveraged loan in July (5 year tenor). Sales are down 7% though.

I’m still a fan of telecom in the emerging markets. Aside from possible nationalizing or tanks rolling over them, there is little political risk that would result under civil unrest – people still need to call each other right?

According to the IMF, the problem with Indonesia is that it hasn’t really found a way to increase market share in the export market. Indonesia has an open trade policy with little or no tarrifs making it a relatively open economy. Yet it seems to have it’s focus in the wrong place. It is currently over trading with Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. It is under-trading with the US, EU, and the rest of Asia.

As it stands now, it may be worth getting into these short term corporates that are paying extremely high yields in Indonesia. I certainly would not want to invest in the sovereign paper nor it’s equities unless you really know where to look. The macro fundamentals in Indonesia do not seem poised for growth unless its leaders push for increased trade with China, EU and the US. Currently it’s Debt/GDP is on par with Argentina, and we already been down that road.

Breakfast Links

1. China now has 5 out of the world's 10 largest companies. And no, none of them involve sweatshops.

2. India's Sensex finally breaks thru 20,000.

3. Angola is forecasting 2008 GDP growth of 16.2% and all of it from one product. Hint what other product out there allows incompetent governments to grow this quickly?

4. Nissan and India's second largest truck and bus maker, Ashok Leyland, are doing a commercial vehicle joint venture. I always did love Nissan, just won't drive their cars .....

5. Some good news for our Asia - targeted funds that invests in Australia, their index is going up. When gooks and Auzzie's live in perfect harmony, it's a beautiful thing. Goozzies?

Friday, October 26, 2007

some breakfast links to get you going for the weekend

T. Rowe fund returning 62% YTD investing in some previously untapped markets

Don't forget about Russia from Barron's with love.

Don't rely on the BRICs to pick up the slack or the dry cleaning for that matter

The IMF shows some concern. All together now: awwww!

Thursday, October 25, 2007

I'm trying to convince my girlfriend to let me go to Brazil for Carnivale

While i'm down there maybe i'll do an IPO.
By now you've probably heard that Bovespa raised over $3bn.
I hear Brazilian women like American men so I like my odds. Of course with what the Reai is doing, my puny dollars may not get me very far.
I'm convinced about Brazil! As for my girlfriend.....

Links - Bidding on hair

1. ‘Che’ Guevara’s hair’s on sale so what sick Latin American dictator could possibly be interested?

2. Sanluis Rassini (NR/B2/B-) coming out with a 11.5% $275m 10 year senior unsecured bond issue.

3. IDB approves $500 million conditional credit line for Costa Rica’s power company.

4. Hipotecaria Su Casita (BMV: CASITA) is worth watching as it continues to price monster Mexican RMBS.

5. Carlos Slim loses a billion or so but it ain’t no thang.

more Chinese IPOs (because they're good for you)

if we've said it once, we've said it 1 million times! Chinese IPOs are what you want to be paying attention to. Throughout our illustrious history we've made this point, and hope it's becoming clear to some of you now.
Longtop Financial gained 85% after it's first day of trading (although it gave back about 8% today)
Perhaps you should listen to Buffett when he says to dump PetroChina; the soon to be largest company in the world by market cap, but that doesn't mean you can't still make $ from Chinese issuers. We're hearing Longtop has decided to exercise their shoe. I'm in the mood for some pot stickers

Apples with Oranges

The one great thing about EM debt is the fact it simply follows B-school fundamentals. Credit, liquidity, political risks are more or less priced in. Investors know more or less exactly what they are getting into. It's no secret if your bond has a guy in power who is looking to nationalize everything, build a nuclear bomb, or make cheezy movies. Unlike fishy accounting - riots, civil wars, high inflation, etc., are all laid out in the open. Everyone invests in China, people has heard of China, buy lead painted Chinese toys, and eats kung pao chicken. But is China really making clear the risks involved to you? Plus firms like Cnooc and PetroChina are borrowing at 4-5%, doesn't make for attractive bargins.

Is investing in a current war zone any worst than investing in an American bond? Now I don't mean munis but some of current exotic corporates out there. For example, take MTN's tied to something. Toyota has priced several of these MTNs tied to caps, swaps, it's most recent CMS, claiming a interest target of 9%. Now I'm pretty lazy when it comes to options, if you are using CMS to hedge durations, that's fine, it what it's intended for, but they're talking about a serious arb move.

Honestly who would trust something like this :

"
The Notes will bear interest from and including the Original Issue Date to but excluding the Interest Payment Date on October 31, 2008 at the Initial Interest Rate of 9.00% per year. The Notes will bear interest from and including the Interest Payment Date on October 31, 2008 and each Interest Payment Date thereafter to but excluding the following Interest Payment Date until the Interest Payment Date on October 31, 2017 (each, a “First Interest Calculation Period”) at a rate equal to the Initial Interest Rate of 9.00% per year multiplied by the Barrier Amount. The Notes will bear interest from and including the Interest Payment Date on October 31, 2017 and each Interest Payment Date thereafter to but excluding the following Interest Payment Date until the Interest Payment Date on October 31, 2022 (each, a “Second Interest Calculation Period”) at a rate equal to 10.00% per year multiplied by the Barrier Amount. The Notes will bear interest from and including the Interest Payment Date on October 31, 2022 and each Interest Payment Date thereafter to but excluding the following Interest Payment Date (or Maturity, as applicable) (each, a “Third Interest Calculation Period”) at a rate equal to 20.00% per year multiplied by the Barrier Amount.
“Interest Calculation Period” means each First Interest Calculation Period, Second Interest Calculation Period and Third Interest Calculation Period, and “Floating Interest Rate Period” means collectively the First Interest Calculation Periods, Second Interest Calculation Periods and Third Interest Calculation Periods.
“Barrier Amount” means an amount calculated in accordance with the following formula:
n / N
Where:
“n” is the total number of calendar days in the applicable Interest Calculation Period on which the difference between the 30-Year CMS Rate minus the 10-Year CMS Rate (the “Spread”) sets greater than or equal to 0.0%; provided however, that the Spread determined on the fifth U.S. Government Securities Business Day (as defined below) prior to each Interest Payment Date (or Maturity, as applicable) shall apply to such U.S. Government Securities Business Day and each of the remaining calendar days in the related Interest Calculation Period; and
“N” is the total number of calendar days in the applicable Interest Calculation Period.
No interest will accrue on the Notes with respect to any calendar day on which the Spread is determined or deemed to be less than 0.0%. For each calendar day in an Interest Calculation Period that is not a U.S. Government Securities Business Day, the Spread for that calendar day will be the Spread determined on the immediately preceding U.S. Government Securities Business Day."


Now granted that CMS Rates are not specifically pegged like other interest rate swaps but this involves too many ifs. It boggles my mind as to who actually invests in stuff like this. At least if I'm investing in Sri Lanka, the war zone is paying me my 325 bps. It's clear on where the risks are and posts a huge sign in front it's crumbling infrastructure, warning the buyer to beware.

If Buffett says it, then it must be true

Signaling caution about China, Buffet warned about investing in China after he excused himself from the PetroChina party he'd been attending since 2000
The man from the Cornhusker state says he is "appreciative" of the performance of PetroChina and that he doubts he'll find another stock like it. Cheer up old Chap, Alibaba is just around the corner.

Breakfast Links

1. Industrial and Commercial Bank of China to buy about 20% of Africa's biggest lender by assets for $5.6bn.

2. Is anyone NOT spanking the dollar? Polish Zloty rises against the Euro.

3. Brazilian power company Copel expects to invest about 7bn reais (US$3.88bn) for 2008 to increase capacity.

4. China's GDP up 11.5% in first nine months!

5. How does mining giant Xstrata motivate it's Australian coal miners? What else - offer Kama Sutra lessons.

Wednesday, October 24, 2007

fuqme? no fuqu! no fuqi!

In the great tradition of assystem, wang on group, wienerberger AG; Fuqi Int’l Inc brings us another company with a semi-obscene, yet funny when you said it aloud name.
The 21 Chinese IPOs listing for the first time in the states year to date have 1 day returns of 18% and one week returns of almost 23%.
How do I know? Use your terminals people!
Also be on the lookout for Longtop Financial which opened today at 27.01, 34% higher than what it priced at last night.
Nothing in the world makes us here at Markets Emerge! as happy as Chinese IPOs do. Maybe except some really good tapas.