Tuesday, October 23, 2007

What is an emerging market?

This blog deals with the world of emerging markets investing. Of course, that begs the question – What is an emerging market? It seems that everyone has their own definitions, some of which makes no sense whatsoever. For example, the Economist magazine lists both Hong Kong and Singapore as emerging markets. Why is Taiwan on the list while New Zealand is quite clearly noted as a developed nation? Taiwan has six times the GDP of New Zealand and manufactures everything from oil tankers to microchips. The only things I see coming out of New Zealand are lamb chops and cashmere sweaters.

One of the defining features I think all are in agreement when it comes to developing markets is their potential for growth and their affect on the general marketplace. For example no one gives a flying flip about Zimbabwe but India is another story. The world is moving way beyond GM and Ford, the new giants are not waiting til the country stabilizes. It is more likely that our current landscape is going be shaped by the likes of ChinaPetro and Mittal than a US company like GE.

But of course, investing in the third world isn't easy. Companies in these places operate with questionable electricity, infrastructures designed by 3 year olds, and government officials ever ready to take their bribe. You invest at your peril and no amount of chart reading or even fundamental analysis will help you here.

But of course, if you fancy yourself a coming of age George Soros, there is no other arena to play in. Enjoy and any advice to the site is welcomed. We don't have a plan yet on where this will go, only following the topic listed above, we're a market trying to emerge.

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