Ranting on Bubbles

There a huge line between being a bear and being Chicken Little. Chicken Little, as the story goes, is constantly crying out that the sky is falling. A bear is one who believes the market is going to crash and is waiting patiently to start feasting on cadavers.

Over the last few weeks we have been bombarded with alerts that there is a bubble going on in China. No shit Sherlock. I mean, is there some idiot out there buying in that believes we're only at the beginning of the market cycle? A quick search on Google for 'China + bubble' gave us 7 million hits!

Rather than constant writing about the obvious these people get need to get involved. Just think about the recent credit crunch, people have been "predicting" a housing crash for the past 4 years. Would you have shorted the ABX 2 years ago? Your portfolio would look like bloody Iraq right now.

The point is that we are always in one bubble or another, that's just the nature of business or credit cycles. But say you do have a timeframe for the eventual Chinese meltdown. You know that Shanghai is going to have its ass kung pao-ed. As this Forbes article believes it will after the 2008. Don't write articles about it, put your money where your mouth is.

Do you really have what it takes to be a bear on this market? Are you willing to buy puts or short the index? With Ipos coming out that rise 50-60% on the first day you are either loony or brilliant. To tackle this bull you have to ask yourself, do you have the moral fortitude and the balls the size of mangos to put on a short position in front of the charging train?

You're a brave one Chicken Little. We who are about to die, salute you.